滨海金属矿床海水涌入危险性等级评价模型及应用

摘要

In order to get a risk rating for assessing seawater inrush in costal metal deposits, 10 factors contributing to the risk of seawater inrush were taken for analysis based on the hydrogeology and engineering geological conditions of coastal deposits, and a hierarchical model of risk assessment system with 10 indexes was established. Then, a model with risk rating and risk sequence was establish by adopting information entropy and unascertained measure theory. An uncertainty measure function was decided for each influencing factor based on measured data, and quantitative analysis was performed for 10 indexes. The index weight was calculated with information entropy theory and risk rating was obtained according to credible degree recognition criteria. This method was employed to assess the risk of seawater inrush on 9 working levels in Xinli district of Sanshandao Gold Mine, with a list of sequence of risk obtained for 9 working levels. Compared with result obtained by fuzzy mathematics, it is found that this model can give a more scientific and rational assessment, which can provide important guidance for the controlling of seawater inrush in coastal metal deposits.%为了更好评价滨海金属矿床海水涌入危险性等级，基于滨海矿床水文地质和工程地质条件，考虑和分析了影响其危险性的10个因素，并建立了10项指标的危险性评价指标体系层次模型；采用信息熵和未确知测度理论方法，建立滨海金属矿床海水涌入危险性等级评价和排序模型，根据实测数据确定了各影响因素的未确知测度函数，对10项指标分别进行定量分析，用熵计算各影响因素的指标权重，依照置信度识别准则进行等级判定，按危险程度进行了排序。将该方法应用于三山岛金矿新立矿区9个开采水平的危险性等级评价，并将评价结果与模糊数学法进行对比，结果表明：该模型科学合理，可很好地评价滨海金属矿床海水涌入危险性等级，对滨海金属矿床海水涌入的治理具有重要指导意义。