Based on the temperature data collected by 7 stations in Qingdao and the 2-meter ECMWF fine grid forecast data form 2013 to 2015,the forecast effectiveness of the EC model is verified in different seasons and synoptic systems.The results show that the forecast errors in coastal regions are greater than those in the inland,and the effectiveness becomes worse with the increase of lead time.Maximum temperature forecast has negative errors except the Jiaozhou station,and minimum temperature forecast has positive errors for the Qingdao,Pingdu,Laixi stations,and negative errors for the rest.The maximum temperature forecasts in March and April,as well as August and September,are not so stable,while the minimum temperature forecasts in the summer half year are better than those in the winter half year.According to the regularity of the errors,the amended reference values of the 7 stations are given.After correction,the forecast effectiveness is improved obviously,3％ to 16％ for maximum temperature,and 4％ to 18％ for minimum temperature.The forecast performance in different weather is also different:in rainstorm,severe convection,high temperature,warmer,temperature dropping weather,the maximum temperature forecast is lower,and the minimum temperature forecast is lower in winter fog weather;when there is radiation cooling,the minimum temperature forecasts are lower at the coastal stations in the south and higher at the inland stations in the north.%利用2013-2015年ECMWF(简称EC)细网格模式2 m气温预报产品,分析了不同季节和不同天气形势下EC细网格模式产品对青岛地区7个基准站逐日最高气温和最低气温的预报性能.结果表明:EC细网格模式2 m气温预报误差沿海站点大于内陆站点,且误差随着预报时效的延长逐渐增大.最高气温预报除胶州站外均为负误差,最低气温预报青岛、平度、莱西为正误差,崂山、黄岛、胶州和即墨为负误差.最高气温预报在3-4月和8-9月预报质量不稳定,最低气温预报夏半年好于冬半年.根据模式误差特点,给出7站气温主观订正参考值,订正后最高气温预报准确率提高3％～16％,最低气温预报准确率提高4％～18％.EC细网格模式对于暴雨、强对流、高温晴热、回暖天气、冷空气过程最高气温预报偏低,海雾影响时最高温度预报偏高;对冬季大雾情形下的最低气温预报偏低,辐射降温时最低气温预报沿海站点偏低,北部内陆站点偏高.
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