基于物理量参数的江苏短时强降水预报模型的研究

摘要

提本文利用2004—2013年6—8月江苏省三个常规探空站（徐州、射阳、南京）的逐日高空探测资料，计算了51个物理量参数。在物理量参数与短时强降水事件（观测时刻后0～6h内出现的短时强降水天气）相关系数的显著性检验基础上，根据物理量参数在短时强降水样本和非短时强降水样本中值域分布特征，最终选定了具有预报意义的16个物理量参数。通过分析不同类型物理量参数对短时强降水天气的指示作用，根据各物理量参数在各月短时强降水事件中的阈值，确定了江苏短时强降水预报的判定指标。采用隶属函数转换法，建立江苏夏季短时强降水预报模型，经实况拟合检验，效果良好。%Fifty-one physical parameters are calculated by using upper sounding data from the Xuzhou, Sheyang and Nanjing Stations from June to August in 2004-2013.Based on the significance test of the correlation coefficient between physical parameters and flash-heavy-rain events (flash heavy rain that oc-curred after 0-6 h of the observation time)and the analysis of numerical distribution of physical parame-ters in the flash-heavy-rain samples and the non-flash-heavy-rain samples,16 physical parameters of pre-diction are selected finally.Through analyzing the indication to the flash-heavy-rain events of different types of physical parameters,and according to the different threshold of physical parameters in each month,different criteria for the flash-heavy-rain events are determined respectively.Thus,the flash-heavy-rain forecast model for summer short-time heavy rains in Jiangsu is established by the membership function conversion method.The fitting test and forecasting test of the forecast model are verified,and the results are good.