中国海洋交通运输业碳排放因素分解研究——基于中国远洋集团的实证分析

摘要

In this paper we proposed an identity of China＇s marine communications and transport＇s carbon emission based on the factors of freight scale, freight distance, energy intensity, energy structure and carbon emission coefficient. We used the LMDI decomposition method, and analyzed the key factors which influence the carbon emissions of China＇s marine communications and transport based on the energy consumption data of the China Ocean Group between 2004 on 2008. We made the conclusion that the energy structure factor and the freight scale factor are still the pulling factors of carbon emissions; the energy intensity factor is a pulling factor at first, and then becomes an inhibiting factor; and the influence exerted by the distance freight factor is little. So the key to reducing the carbon emission is to improve the energy structure and emphasize the inhibiting effect of the energy intensity factor.%构建了一个海洋交通运输业的基于货运规模、货运距离、能源强度、能源结构、碳排放系数的碳排放恒等式．运用LMDI分解技术，根据中国远洋集团2004年-2008年能源消耗数据，分析了影响我国海洋交通运输业碳排放量的关键因素。结果表明：能源结构因素、货运规模因素一直是碳排放量的拉动因素。能源强度因素先是碳排放量的拉动因素，后成为抑制因素。货运距离因素对碳排放量的影响不大。海洋交通运输业减排的关键在于调整能源结构，并加大能源强度因素对碳排放量增加的抑制作用。