“海上丝绸之路”物流绩效及对中国进出口贸易影响实证

摘要

Logistics performance is the key factor to promote the development of the Maritime Silk -road.Based on the logistics performance index (LPI)as the breakthrough point,on one hand,we describe and analyze the LPI indexes and the components of LPI of the Maritime Silk -road Economic Zone countries.On the other hand,we extend the trade gravity model to make empirical analysis of the impacts of LPI index and the components of trade on China.The results of the study show that:The mean of LPI of Gulf States is higher than that of ASEAN while South Asian with the lowest level.The infrastructure and customs are mainly due to the low logistics performance.International logistics performance improvement of Maritime Silk -road Economic Zone is helpful to promote the trade,but the effect degrees of each com-ponent are customs,timelines,infrastructure,logistics competence,international shipments and tracking &tracing in turn.%物流绩效是推进海上丝绸之路经济带发展的关键要素，以物流绩效指数（LPI）为切入点，对海上丝绸之路经济带沿线国家的 LPI 指数及分项指标进行了定性描述与分析，同时拓展了贸易引力模型，实证分析了物流绩效对中国进出口贸易的影响。研究发现：海湾国家 LPI 均值好于东盟国家，南亚国家水平最低；物流基础设施质量和海关效率是拉低物流绩效的主要原因；物流绩效改善有利于中国对海上丝绸之路经济带贸易伙伴的进出口贸易，各分项指标的促进程度依次为海关效率、货物运输及时性、物流基础设施质量、物流服务能力、国际运输便利性和货物可追溯性。