基于巢式 Logit 模型的城市交通结构演化建模与仿真

摘要

巢式Logit模型是交通方式选择研究的经典理论之一，通过对居民出行方式对比较分析，结合居民出行方式选择行为习惯，给出多种巢式层次划分方案，通过分析比较并确定将城市交通结构划分为公共交通巢、非机动交通巢和非公共机动交通巢等3个，引入疲劳度系数，结合时间成本和货币成本，构建不同巢的效用函数，结合哈尔滨客运交通结构的现状数据，分析不同单位时间价值量和出行距离条件下，各种出行方式分担率的变化情况，结果表明，该模型可以较好地描述城市交通结构演化特征，为制定交通政策提供理论依据。%T he Nested‐Logit model is one of the classical theory for transport modes selection studies , compareing and analysis on residents travel modes ,combined with residents travel mode choice behav‐ior ,four nested hierarchical classification programs are given ,The nest structure program is deter‐mined and is divided into public transport nest ,non‐motorized transport nest and non‐public motorized transport .The fatigue factor is introduced ,combined with the time cost and monetary cost ,the utili‐ty functions for different nests is established ,combined with the current data of passenger traffic structure in Harbin .The sharing rate changing trends of various transport modes is analyzed ,in the condition of different travel distance and VOT ,the results showed that the model can describe the e‐volution characteristic of urban transportation structure ,and provide the theoretical foundation for the transport policy .