我国粮油加工业产能过剩影响因素与治理对策研究

摘要

利用灰色关联度多因素统计和构建面板数据模型方法对我国粮油加工业产能过剩影响因素进行了深入研究，结果表明：产业集中度、行业利润率、固定资产投资、科研投入强度等因素与行业产能过剩之间存在较高关联度。并采用面板广义最小二乘估计法（ EGLS ）研究发现行业集中度提高和行业科研投入强度的加大对提高我国粮油加工业产能利用率的贡献明显，而固定资产投资加快造成产能急剧扩张，同时导致产能严重过剩。由此，提出严格增量控制与优化存量结构，明确界定和制定行业落后产能淘汰标准，加大研发投入和打造创新平台，建立行业信息引导与发布体系等政策建议。%The article carries on a deep research on the influence factors ofChina’ grain an d oil processing industry with the analytic methods of the gray correlation degree and the panel data model.The research shows that there ex-ists high correlation degree between the factors, e.g, the degree of industrial concentration, the industry profit rate, the fixed-asset investment or the input intensity of R&D, and the industry overcapacity.Also the study with EGLS has found that the services of the degree of industrial concentration and the input intensity of R&D to the rate of capacity is obvious.Thus, the article puts forward the policy suggestions:strictly controlling the increment and optimizing the structure of the stock;clearly defining the outdated capacity and formulating the elimination of out-dated capacity;increasing investment in R&D and creating innovative platform;establishing the system of informa-tion guide and issue, etc.