大型铁路客运站候车区微观仿真建模与分析

摘要

为准确掌握大型铁路客运站候车区旅客集散特点,预测旅客聚集能力,在旅客到站提前时间分布拟合研究基础上,从微观仿真角度提出了到达旅客生成方法,建立了大型铁路客运站候车区微观仿真逻辑模型.以大连站为实例,得出该站高峰期候车区客流变化曲线和最高聚集人数95%置信区间为[3 638,3 706].以候车区旅客最高聚集人数为目标函数,对候车区客流变化影响因素进行了灵敏度分析.研究发现:旅客到站提前时间对数正态分布的位置参数对候车区旅客最高聚集人数和旅客平均逗留时间均有显著影响;送站人数比例对最高聚集人数有显著影响;进站检票模式只对平均停留时间有显著影响.%In order to accurately grasp the characteristics of passenger mustering and evacuation, estimate the passenger mustering capacity, a method of creating arrival passenger is presented from the microscopic simulation view based on distribution fitting to lead time of arrival passenger, the simulation logic model on waiting area of large scale railway passenger station is built. Taking the Dalian railway station for example,the variation curve of passengers in waiting area is plotted and the 95％ confidence interval of maximum pasuenger mustering is [ 3 638, 3 706 ]. The sensitivity analysis of influencing factors on variation of passengers in waiting area is performed based on the objective function of maximum assembling passenger. The simulation result showes that the location parameter of lognormal distribution has a significant effect on both the maximum assembling passenger and average waiting time in waiting area, the accompany rate has a significant effect on maximum assembling passenger and the management mode of check in has only a significant effect on average waiting time.