基于Petri网模型的铁路快捷货运产品可靠性评价

摘要

为准确评价及预测铁路快捷货运产品的可靠性,在全面分析铁路快捷货运产品可靠性影响因素的基础上,建立用于产品可靠性评价的故障树模型,并采用下行法求取故障树的最小割集;结合Petri网建模方法与故障树基本理论,将产品故障树转化为Petri网仿真模型,并证明两者的等价性;利用Matlab仿真软件进行基于关联矩阵的Petri网模型求解,并以北京—上海间特快货物班列为例,得到该产品的可靠度及故障因素重要度排序.实证结果显示,应用Petri网模型来求解产品可靠性评价问题,不仅能够有效提升求解过程的效率,而且准确易行.研究成果可以为提高铁路快捷货运产品可靠性和市场竞争力提供科学依据和必要支撑.%To accurately evaluate the reliability of railway express freight product, on the basis of analysis on reliability influence factors of it, a fault tree is built, and the minimal cut sets of the fault tree is given. Combined with the basic theory of Petri net and fault tree analysis, the fault tree of railway express freight product is transformed into Petri net simulation model, and this transformation is proved to be an equivalent transformation. Using Matlab simulation software, the reliability and the importance of failure factors of railway express freight product between Beijing and Shanghai are obtained. Empirical results indicate the Petri net can solve the problem efficiently and effectively, which demonstrates feasibility of the method in addressing this problem. Research results of this paper will provide a scientific basis and necessary support in improving the reliability and market competitiveness of railway express freight product.