多桥水域航道通过能力仿真研究

摘要

为了确定内河多桥水域的航道通过能力,提出多桥航道的交通流仿真模型.以长江武汉段的多桥航道为研究对象,收集大量的船舶交通流历史数据,用统计的方法分析这些数据获得交通流特征,提出基于蒙特卡罗方法的船舶生成模型、队列模型、航路模型和船舶运动模型等;开发仿真系统并对模型进行验证;通过仿真实验确定多桥水域的航道通过能力.仿真结果表明,所提出的内河多桥航道交通流仿真模型是可行和有效的;在目前的通航条件下,长江武汉段多桥水域的航道通过能力与实际的交通流量相比显得非常富余;在安全航速范围内,通过整体提高船舶的航行速度可以显著提高航道的通过能力;航道水深的变化对上行和下行航道通过能力的影响具有明显的差异.%Simulation models of vessel traffic flow in a multi-bridge waterway are proposed in order to determine transit capacity of the waterway. The multi-bridge waterway belonging to the Yangtze River in Wuhan is as the research case. Firstly, a large number of historical data about vessel traffic flow are collected and the data are analyzed using statistical methods to obtain traffic flow characteristic; secondly, the simulation models are present involving a vessel generating model based on the Monte Carlo method, a queue model, a route model and a vessel movement model;thirdly, the simulation system is developed and the models are validated;finally, the transit capacity of the waterway is determined by simulation. The results show that the proposed simulation models are feasible and effective, under the present navigational conditions the transit capacity of the waterway is much greater than the actual vessel traffic flow;in the safe speed range the transit capacity can significantly be improved if vessel velocities are increased and the effect of waterway depths on upbound and downbound vessels is with obvious difference.