家庭结构、重大疾病和农村劳动力迁移

摘要

在四川省大样本农户调查数据基础上，利用Probit模型分析了家庭结构特征对农村年轻劳动力迁移的影响。研究发现在控制个人特征的前提下：三代同堂家庭显著支持了年轻劳动力外出，而核心家庭对劳动力的外出有显著负面影响；家庭中有未成年人会限制年轻劳动力的外出；年轻配偶的重大疾病显著地影响了年轻人的外出老年人的严重疾病反而促使年轻劳动力外出，但如果家庭中存在未成年人，则老年人的严重疾病会对年轻劳动力迁移产生显著负面影响。研究结果突出体现了当前中国农村劳动力迁移在很大程度上是一种家庭内部的分工行为，在制定社会保障政策时应该予以重视。%This paper explores the joint influence of individual characteristics and household composition on migration decisions and develops a Probit model of the likelihood of such decisions using data from a large scale household survey in Sichuan province.It suggests that comparing with the nuclear family,the traditional three-generation household encourages out-migration,with the older members providing the se-cure base from which younger adults can venture out in search of the benefits of a rapidly growing econo-my.One of young couples serious illness has negative impact on the migration of the other;while the ol-der membersserious illness in one family has significant positive impact on the migration of young labor. But for the family with young child,the older membersserious illness has significant negative impact on the migration of young labor.It is argued that the migration of rural labor which could be looked as labor division of rural family,needs to be considered in the design of social support mechanisms.