多因素组合下发射载体出管速度偏差预估方法

摘要

运用极限偏差、合成标准差、统计分析、蒙特卡洛仿真等多种预估方法,对发射载体出管速度偏差进行对比分析.分析结果表明,极限偏差法工程应用成熟,但预估结果偏于保守,适用于影响因素尚未认知完全的工程型号;对于影响因素比较明确的系统,运用统计分析法、合成标准差法得到的发射载体出管速度预估值一致性好,方法简单,且具有较高的准确性;蒙特卡洛法计算过程复杂,可通过大量仿真计算获取出管速度的分布特性,得到对应不同指标的分布概率,相比其他几种方法,计算结果更加科学、合理.工程型号应用时,可根据实际需要组合使用上述方法进行发射载体出管速度偏差预估分析.%This text utilized the limit deviation method,synthesis method of standard deviation,statistical analysis,Monte-Carlo method to make contrastive analysis for the deviation of the tube-exit velocity.The limit deviation method was ripe in the engineering application,but this method inclined to conservative,and can only be used in the engineering whose influence factors wasn't com-pletely cognized.For the system with specified influence factors,the tube-exit velocity of the launched vehicle achieved through sta-tistical analysis and synthetic method of standard deviation was accordant.These methods were simple with superior accuracy.Monte-Carlo method's process of computing was complicated, which could achieve distributive characteristics of the tube-exit velocity through a large number of computing.One could get the distributive probability about different indicators,where the computing results were much more scientific and rational comparative to the other methods.When applying this method in engineering, one could com-bine these methods under the necessity to predicting the deviation of the tube-exit velocity.