船舶操纵性计算预报中的不确定度评定

摘要

Uncertainty is the parameter, associated with the result of a measurement, that characterizes the dispersion of the values which could reasonably be attributed to the measurand. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has adopted the Resolution Msc.l37(76) Standards for Ship Manoeuvrability (IMO, 2002b),therefore an accurate prediction of manoeuvring abilities at design stage through numerical simulation has become a fundamental issue.In this paper, GUM (Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement) analysis method was adopted to investigate the reliability of concentrated parameters numerical procedures, a code for manoeuvring simulation was developed at CSSRC, based on the classical nonlinear mathematics model approach for hydrodynamics of model test and manoeuvring derivatives.%不确定度分析是以定量的形式给出数据结果的品质和可信度,是数据分析中必要的一个组成部分.为了适应国际海事组织(IMO)正式通过的MSC.137(76)船舶操纵性标准(IMO,2002b)决议,就要求在船舶设计阶段通过数值计算方法预报的操纵性能更加精确.因此,文章依照GUM不确定度评定方法,基于船舶操纵性预报“整体型”数学模型,结合操纵性水动力试验结果及其导数分析,对船舶操纵性预报结果进行了不确定度评定.