船-冰碰撞几何概率计算方法及影响因素研究

摘要

Based on the probability theory of two-dimension continuous random variables and the concept of complex on aerospace engineering, a typical channel in a specific area is chosen as a object, the colli-sion geometric probability calculation mathematical model between ships and ice is put forward. With Mat-lab, the program is compiled and the geometric collision probability is calculated. Finally, by studying the sizes of ships and ice floes, relevant parameters of the ships’ distribution function, the relationship between collision probability and each parameters is revealed.%　　文章以特定海域内的典型航道作为研究对象，基于二维连续型随机变量的概率理论，并结合航天工程中复合体的概念，建立了船—冰碰撞几何概率计算的数学模型；同时应用Matlab编制了相关程序，计算了船—冰碰撞的几何概率；最后分析了船舶和浮冰尺寸以及船舶分布函数中的相关参数对于几何碰撞概率的影响，揭示了几何碰撞概率与各个参数之间的关系。