基于人机工程的物流运输三参数风险评估模型

摘要

In order to analyze the risk state of logistics transportation effectively, aiming at the deficiency of traditional risk assessment technologies, a three parameters risk assessment model taking risk occurrence probability, risk consequence and risk importance as technical parameters was constructed.Firstly, the influence factors of risk in logistics transportation process were analyzed based on safety man-machine engineering principle system, and an index system on risk assessment of logistics transportation was established.Secondly, considering the randomness and fuzziness of risk factors, a parameter de-termination method based on coupling of triangular fuzzy number and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process.Finally, a calculation case was given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed model.The results showed that the method is better than tradi-tional risk assessment technologies in quantitative risk analysis of logistics transportation.%为了有效分析物流运输的风险状况，针对传统风险评估技术的不足，构建了一种以风险发生概率、风险后果和风险重要度为技术参数的物流运输风险三参数评估模型。首先，依据安全人机工程原理系统分析物流运输过程风险的影响因素，并建立物流运输风险评价指标体系。然后考虑风险因素的随机性和模糊性，提出了一种基于三角模糊数和模糊层次分析耦合的参数确定方法。最后，通过一个算例分析说明构建模型的有效性。结果表明，所提出方法用于物流运输风险定量分析优于传统风险评估技术。