基于脆弱性的地铁网络事故蔓延模型构建研究

摘要

为了解决地铁系统事故中应急方案的合理制定问题,针对网络化条件下的事故蔓延机理进行研究.首先,通过对脆弱性进行内涵分析,明确脆弱性概念在安全管理和安全评价中的特点,阐明脆弱性作为事故蔓延扩散特征参数的合理性;其次,以脆弱性为依托,分析地铁事故沿网络拓扑的蔓延机理并据此构建地铁网络事故蔓延引力模型;最后,以北京地铁为例对建立的模型进行测算,验证模型的有效性.结果表明:西直门发生事故时,车公庄、新街口、积水潭和平安里是4个一级应急响应站点.%In order to solve the problem of reasonable formulation on emergency scheme for subway system accident, the mechanism of accident spread under the condition of network was studied.Firstly, through the analysis on the connotation of vulnerability, the characteristics of vulnerability concept in safety management and safety evaluation were made clear, and the rationality of taking vulnerability as the characteristic parameter of accident spread was clarified.Secondly, relying on vulnerability, the spread mechanism of subway accident along the network topology was analyzed, then a gravity model on accident spread in subway network was constructed.Finally, the measurement was conducted on the established model by taking Beijing subway as example to verify the effec|tiveness of the mode.The results showed that when the accident happens in Xizhimen station, there are four sta|tions with the first level emergency response, including Chegongzhuang station, Xinjiekou station, Jishuitan station and Pinganli station.