According to the structure and operational characteristics of CRH3 EMU auxiliary power system, the reliability network diagram model for the system was built on the basis of the graph theory. Therefore, the calculation for availability is transformed into calculating the connected probability of network diagram from the beginning to the end. Then the MCS-CA algorithm and its improved algorithm with fusion of LS-SVM are applied to the reliability analysis successively, in which the maintainability and shutdown correlation of components for the system are taken into account. In consideration of historical running data on a CRH3 EMU, the calculated results are obtained in different working modes, and the related curves as well as formulas of reliability and availability varying with time were presented here. The research shows that the calculated results with the improved method embodies the high computational efficiency and stable accuracy. Besides, the parallel relationship between components and the redundant design of system both can improve the reliability of a system.%根据 CRH3型动车组辅助供电系统结构及运行特点,结合图论建立系统可靠性网络图模型,随之将系统可用度计算转化为网络图模型连通概率计算.在考虑部件停工相关性及可维修的前提下,分别用蒙特卡罗模拟?元胞自动机(MCS-CA)算法及融入最小二乘支持向量机(LS-SVM)的改进算法,结合某CRH3型动车组历史运行故障数据,计算分析系统在不同工作模式下的可靠性,并绘制随时间变化的可靠度与可用度曲线,同时给出不同情况下可靠度与可用度表达式.研究结果表明:改进算法可有效提高计算效率且同时保证结果的准确性;系统部件之间的并联模式及系统冗余设计均可提高系统可靠性.
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