基于KAYA模型的青岛市碳排放及驱动因素分析

摘要

This paper analyzes the carbon emissions and driving factors of Qingdao city based on KAYA model. The empirical results indicate that total carbon emissions and carbon productivity continue to increase, and there is no fundamental difference in the mode of high carbon economy dominated by coal and oil during 2001-2010. The growth of population, economic development, and energy consumption per unit of carbon emissions lead to the increase of carbon emissions, but the boost of per unit GDP energy intensity reduces the carbon emission to a certain extent. The economic development and the unit GDP energy intensity are the main influencing factors in the four influencing factors. According to the empirical results, Qingdao city should focus on the adjustment of economic structure and energy structure to realize the goal of development of low carbon by the innovation of low carbon technology and mechanism economy.%本文运用KAYA模型，对青岛市碳排放及其驱动因素进行了实证研究。研究发现，2001-2010年青岛市碳排放总量持续增加，碳生产力不断提高，以煤炭、石油为主的高碳经济发展模式仍然没有根本改观。青岛市人口数量、经济发展、单位能耗碳排放的增长导致碳排放量的增加，单位GDP能源强度的提高在一定程度上降低了碳排放量。四个影响因素中，经济发展和单位GDP能源强度是影响青岛市碳排放的主要因素。根据实证结果，青岛市应以调整经济结构和能源利用结构为重点，通过低碳技术创新和机制创新，实现低碳经济的发展目标。