预测宫腔粘连患者妊娠概率列线图模型建立的研究

摘要

目的:探讨宫腔粘连(IUA)妊娠预后的影响因素,构建预测IUA妊娠概率的列线图模型.方法:选择2010年1月至2017年1月在我院诊断并进行综合治疗的105例IUA患者,通过Cox模型分析影响IUA妊娠预后的影响因素,并建立预测IUA患者综合治疗后妊娠概率的列线图模型.结果:患者年龄(RR=0.480,P=0.045)、粘连性质(RR=0.652,P=0.015)和治疗效果(RR=0.508,P=0.004)是影响IUA妊娠预后的独立因素,预测治疗后2年内妊娠概率列线图模型的准确性为0.697.结论:基于年龄、粘连性质、产次和治疗效果等4个因素构建的列线图有助于个体化预测IUA患者综合治疗后的妊娠概率,为临床治疗提供更有力的指导.%Objective:To explore the influence factors of the pregancy prognosis of intrauterine adhesions,and to construct a nomogram predicting the pregnancy probability of IUA patients.Methods:105 patients who had been diagnosed with intrauterine adhesions and accepted surgery treatment in Zhujiang Hospital of Southern Medical University from January 2010 to January 2017 were included in our study.The Cox regression analysis were applied to explore the related factors influencing pregnancy prognosis of IUA patients,and to establish the nomogram to predict the pregnancy probability of I UA.Results:The age(RR =0.480,P =0.045),adhesion properties(RR =0.652,P =0.015),and surgical effects (RR =0.508,P =0.004) of the patients were independent factors influencing the prognosis of IUA.And the accuracy of the nomogram for predicting the pregnancy probability at 2 years after treatment was 0.697.Conclusions:The nomgram based on age,adhesion properties,number of childbirths and surgical effects,helps to individually predict the pregnancy probability of I UA patients after comprehensive treatment,providing more guidance for clinical treatment.