近15年来气候变化对中国经济的直接影响

摘要

以国家权威部门发布的统计资料为基础数据，分析气候变化对中国经济的影响，结果表明：近15年来气候变化对中国经济的影响在加剧。1991～2005年期间与气候变化相关的自然灾害造成的直接经济损失在932亿～3570亿元之间，呈明显上升趋势；所占GDP的比重为5．70％～1．31％，呈下降趋势。在此期间，干旱、农作物病虫害、草地病虫害、风暴潮、森林火灾的直接经济损失呈现上升趋势；洪涝灾害和台风上升趋势不明显；森林病虫害和草地火灾呈下降趋势。2000年以来自然灾害的直接经济损失一直稳定在相当于GDP 1．08％～2．05％的水平，气候变化对国民经济存在不可忽视的负面影响。%The effect of climate change on economy of China was analyzed based on the essential data which was issued by country's authorities.The result showed that the effect of the climate change in recent 15 years on economy of China was ag-gravating.The natural disasters which were related to climate change resulted in direct economy loss 93.2 billion~357 bil-lion during the year of 1991~2005 and its tendency raised apparently.Furthermore, it occupied 5.70%~1.31%of GDP and presented descent tendency.The direct economy loss of drought, crop diseases and pests, grass diseases and pests, storm surge and forest fire presented rising tendency in the meanwhile.The rising tendency of flood disaster and typhoon were not apparent.The forest diseases and pests and grass fire presented descent tendency.The direct economy loss of nat-ural disaster stabilized the level of 1.08%~2.05%of GDP all the time since 2000.The negative effect of climate change on national economy wouldn't be neglected.