A1B情景下黄河源区径流变化趋势

摘要

采用SWAT模型和RegCM3模式预测A1 B情景下黄河源区未来的径流变化趋势。构建了黄河源区SWAT模型,采用2000-2005年和2006-2008年逐日气温、降水、流量等实测水文气象数据对模型进行率定和验证,率定期纳西效率系数为0.86、相关系数为0.83,验证期纳西效率系数为0.89、相关系数为0.86,模拟效果好。评价RegCM3模式对黄河源区气温和降水的模拟能力,结果表明该模式对气温和降水的模拟具有很好的相关性,模拟效果令人满意。采用RegCM3模式预测的A1 B情景下未来气候信息经系统校正和插值处理后,驱动所构建的SWAT模型模拟了黄河源区2010-2098年的径流系列,预估了黄河源区未来的径流变化趋势。研究结果表明,黄河源区唐乃亥水文站径流系列在2010-2098年总体上呈减少趋势,在2010-2039年、2040-2069年和2070-2098年3个时期呈减-增-减的交替变化趋势,其中2010-2039年和2040-2069年变化趋势不显著,2070-2098年呈显著减少趋势。%The SWAT model and RegCM3 regional climate model were used to predict the future trend in change of the runoff in the source region of the Yellow River under an A1B scenario. The SWAT model for the source region of the Yellow River was constructed, and it was calibrated and verified with hydrometeorological data, including daily temperature, precipitation, and discharge, from 2000 to 2005 and from 2006 to 2008, respectively. The Nash-Suttcliffe efficiency coefficient was 0.86 in the calibration period and 0.89 in the verification period, and the correlation coefficient was 0.83 in the calibration period and 0.86 in the verification period, indicating that the model's simulation effect was good. The RegCM3 regional climate model's capability of simulating the surface air temperature and the precipitation in the source region of the Yellow River was evaluated, and the simulation results, which agreed with observations, were satisfactory. The climate data of the source region of the Yellow River under the A1 B scenario predicted by the RegCM3 regional climate model were processed by the system through correction and interpolation, and then applied to the SWAT model to simulate the runoff series of the source region of the Yellow River from 2010 to 2098 and predict the change trend of runoff in the future. The results show that runoff at the Tangnaihai Station in the source region of the Yellow River will decrease continuously from 2010 to 2098 in general;it will decrease from 2010 to 2039 , will increase from 2040 to 2069 , and will decrease from 2070 to 2098;during the periods from 2010 to 2039 and from 2040 to 2069 , it will change insignificantly; and during the period from 2070 to 2098, it will have a significantly decreasing trend.