Runoff prediction under different climate scenarios in the source region of the Yellow River

摘要

Climate change has great effect on water resources in the source region of the Yellow River, which affects agricultural productivity, industrial water supply and wildlife management in the whole river basin. The hydrologic characteristics of precipitation, temperature and runoff in the source region of the Yellow River are analyzed using the long-term observed data from 1961 to 2010. The trend of runoff is predicted by the multivariate linear regression method under different climate scenarios. Reasons for the changing runoff are explored from the climate change and human activities perspective.