不确定性信息下的内河失控船应急决策方法

摘要

To deal with uncertain information when handling an out⁃of⁃control ship in an inland waterway, we pro⁃pose an emergency decision⁃making method based on evidential reasoning and the technique for order of preference by similarity to an ideal solution ( TOPSIS) . We establish a three⁃level decision framework for handling an out⁃of⁃control ship in an inland waterway, where the objective level, level for decision criterion, and level for influencing factors are defined. We establish the evaluation grades for the objective level, assess both qualitative and quantita⁃tive data with respect to the influencing factors, and use a rule⁃based technique to transform the influencing factors to the objective level. We introduce the evidential reasoning method to integrate the values of the influencing fac⁃tors, from which we develop a decision criterion matrix of different alternatives with respect to different organiza⁃tions. Next, we apply the TOPSIS method to select the best alternative. We use a typical inland waterway incident to verify the proposed method. The results demonstrate that this is a useful decision⁃making method for handling an out⁃of⁃control ship in an inland waterway, for which there is uncertain information. Moreover, this method can be used to make a final decision using a precise value rather than interval numbers.%为解决内河失控船应急处置过程中的不确定性信息问题，本文提出了基于证据推理和逼近理想解排序法（ TOPSIS）的应急处置决策方法。建立了内河失控船应急决策三层决策框架，确定了内河失控船应急决策的目标层、决策准则层和影响因素层。建立了目标层的评价等级，并对影响因素层的定性和定量数据进行评价，应用规则推理的方法将影响因素层评价转换到相应的目标层评价等级。应用证据推理的方法整合了各影响因素评价结果，获取了不同部门不同方案下的决策准则矩阵。应用TOPSIS的方法实现了决策方案的选择。选取了一起典型内河失控船险情对提出的模型进行了验证，研究结果表明：该方法可以很好地处理失控船应急处置决策过程中存在的不确定性信息，且能够采用精确值而非区间值进行最终决策。