近代中国GDP估算理念、方法与功用--答杜恂诚和李晋的质疑

摘要

The paper first explained from the point of view of national income accounting that it was logically reasonable for Wu baosan and other researchers to exclude the goods which didn’t enter the market when calculating GDP of modern China, and pointed out that there was no misunderstanding here. It then answered Du Xuncheng and Li Jin’s queries in short from the perspective of economic logic and econometrics:firstly, it illustrated the theoretical function, calculating model and data quality used in the estimation of GDP of modern China from 1913-1926. Secondly, it expounded further the suitability of theoretical estimating function used to estimate GDP of modern China from 1887-1912 as well as the credibility of conclusion of the influence of the volume of import and export on the national income and exchange rate in modern China history.%首先，本文从国民收入核算理论角度出发，解释了巫宝三等学者估算的近代中国GDP涵盖未进入市场的产品是完全合乎逻辑的，不存在认识误区。然后，从经济学逻辑和计量经济学方法角度简要回答了杜恂诚和李晋对笔者先前之工作提出的质疑：第一，对1913~1926年GDP估算的理论函数、计量模型、数据质量做了必要的说明和澄清；第二，对1887~1912年GDP之估算理论函数对近代中国的适用性、近代中国进口额主要影响因素是国民收入和汇率之结论的可靠性，做了进一步的论证。