空气质量响应曲面模型在杭州市的应用

摘要

基于CMAQ模拟结果,统计、归纳出各种污染物排放控制因子与污染物浓度之间的函数关系,建立空气质量响应曲面模型RSM,通过留一法交叉验证和外部验证对模型进行可靠性验证.使用RSM,研究不同污染物的PM2.5响应值,评估现有政策不变(Ⅰ)和政策收紧(Ⅱ)两种减排情景,发现NOx、SO2、NH3和VOC对PM2.5浓度体现明显的非线性响应特征,情景Ⅱ的减排效果明显好于情景Ⅰ,夏季的减排效果好于冬季.%Based on the CMAQ simulation results,we summarize the function relationships between various pollutant emission control factors and the concentrations of pollutants to establish air quality response surface model (RSM).The cross validation and external validation are used to evaluate the model reliability.In the study of the PM2.5 response of different pollutants and the future emission control scenarios (Ⅰ and Ⅱ) in Hangzhou,we find that Nox,SO2,NH3,and VOC have obvious nonlinear response characteristics to PM2.5 emissions and that the effect of scenario Ⅱ is stronger than that of scenario Ⅰ and the effect in summer is stronger than in winter.