中国区域要素替代弹性变迁及其增长效应——基于异质劳动视角的随机前沿生产函数分析

摘要

文章采用1996-2014年省际面板数据构建区域随机前沿生产函数模型,从劳动异质性视角拓展要素替代弹性分析;并首次联合运用协整方程和误差修正模型,从长期均衡和短期波动过程分析来揭示要素替代约束对经济增长的影响.结果发现:尽管三大区域各自的要素替代弹性变化显著不同,但要素替代弹性的增长效应却彼此具有一致性.其中,东部地区的资本-劳动替代弹性明显地存在着0.805的增长门槛,只有西部地区的资本-劳动替代弹性越过了门槛值,与区域增长具有尚不显著的正相关性而支持德拉格兰德维尔假说;三大区域的资本-技能互补性提高对经济增长的推动作用都不明显;劳动-技能替代弹性则表现为显著的正向增长效应,显示出各区域存在着人力资本红利.值得注意的是,与均衡增长路径上"资本-劳动替代弹性提高能够推动经济增长"的德拉格兰德维尔假说不同,在考虑劳动异质性和技术非效率的前提下,中国地区增长更支持"劳动-技能替代弹性提高能够推动经济增长"的结论.文章为甄别新常态下的区域增长潜力转变、剖析要素匹配合理性及产业结构调整可行性奠定基础.%This paper employs provincial panel data from 1996 to 2014 to construct regional stochastic frontier production function model, and extends the analysis of factor substitution elasticity from the perspective of labor heterogeneity.And then it combines co-integration model and error correction model for the first time to reveal the effect of factor substitution constraints on economic growth from the perspectives of long-term equilibrium and short-term volatility, and further advance & deepen growth effect study of factor substitution elasticity.It shows that there are significant differences in the changes in substitution elasticity among the three major regions, but the growth effects of factor substitution elasticity are consistent mutually.Among them, the capital-labor substitution elasticity in the eastern region clearly has a growth threshold of 0.805;only the capital-labor substitution elasticity in the western region crosses the threshold value, it does not have significantly positive correlation with regional growth, thus supporting the De La Grandville hypothesis;the promotion roles of the increase in capital-skills complementarity among the three major regions in economic growth are not obvious, but the labor-skills substitution elasticity is manifested as a significant positive growth effect, although its growth coefficient is relatively small, still it shows that there are human capital dividends in these regions.It is worth noting that, different from the De La Grandville hypothesis that "capital-labor substitution elasticity can promote economic growth" in equilibrium growth path, when considering labor heterogeneity and technical inefficiency, China's regional growth is more supportive of the conclusion that "the increase in labor-skills substitution elasticity can improve economic growth".This paper further lays foundation on screening regional growth potential transformation under new normal, and analyzing the rationality of factor matching & the feasibility of industrial structure adjustment.