目的：通过分析胆道闭锁的近期和远期条件生存率，探讨影响患儿术后生存状况的因素，为后续治疗提供依据。方法选择本院20052012年收治的胆道闭锁患儿218名，收集其诊疗过程及随访情况，对其生存率采取Kaplan-Meier生存分析；对不同时间点一段时间内生存情况采用条件生存率分析。结果患儿术后1年、3年、5年自体肝累积生存率分别为83．0％、56．8％、40．2％；术后1年、2年、3年生存至第5年的条件生存率分别为48％、54％、71％；术后1年、2年、3年的1年条件生存率分别为90％、76％、76％。结论胆道闭锁患儿Kasai手术后2～2．5年为远期生存率的转折“里程碑”时间点，术后12个月和24个月为近期生存率的“低谷期”时间点。%Objetive To explore the factors influencing the patients’condition after Kasai portoenteros-tomy through analyzing the conditional probability of survival in patients with biliary atresia,in order to provide basis for subsequent treatment. Methods Treatment and follow-up results of the 218 BA patients diagonosed and treated in our hospital from 2005 to 2012 were collected.Kaplan-Meier analysis was conducted on their sur-vival rate,and conditional survival analysis was conducted on the patients’survival conditions at different time points. Results The 1-year,3-year,and 5-year NLS rates were 83.0%,56.8%,and 40.2%,respective-ly.The probabilities of surviving at the time point of 5 years given survival to 1,2,and 3 years were 48%, 54%,71%.For conditional survival for 1 additional year,the 1—year,2—year,3—year rates were 90%,76%, 76%. Conclusion 2 ~2.5 years after Kasai portoenterostomy was the turning point for long-term survival rate,while 12 months and 24 months after Kasai portoenterostomy were two bottom periods for recent survival rate.
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