基于人地关系的自然灾害风险形成机制分析

摘要

自然灾害风险形成机制是灾害风险评价和管理的基础,目前风险形成机制的研究还不足.基于灾害系统理论,提出自然灾害风险的形成需要具备发灾场、致灾力和承灾体三个要素,发灾场是灾害风险形成的空间场所,致灾力是自然事件对承灾体的破坏力,承灾体的暴露性和抵抗力是决定灾害风险是否能够形成的重要因素.从人地关系的角度来说,灾害风险产生的实质是人类活动与灾害事件争夺地理空间的结果,具体表现为灾害事件致灾力与承灾体抵抗力之间的较量,只有当灾害事件的致灾力大于承灾体抵抗力时,灾害风险才有可能产生,风险的大小由灾害事件的致灾力、承灾体抵抗力和暴露性共同决定.根据人灾冲突的理论,灾害风险管理的核心是协调人灾关系,关键是协调人与人的关系.%Natural disaster risk formation mechanism is the foundation of disaster risk evaluation and risk management,but the research is insufficient.Based on disaster system theory,this paper puts forward that disaster occurred place,disaster force and disaster body work together to affect the occurrence of disaster risk.Firstly,disaster occurred place is the place disaster risk happens.Secondly,disaster force is the force natural events acting on disaster body.Thirdly,the exposure and resistance of disaster body are the decisive factors on disaster risk.And disaster risk is the result by the conflict of human activity and disaster event in the race for space from the view of man-land relationship.When disaster force is more powerful than resistance of disaster body,disaster risk could happen.Risk is determined by disaster force,resistance of disaster body and its exposure.According to man-land conflict theory,the core of disaster risk management is coordination relationship of man and disaster,which can be achieved by coordination relationship of human relation.