基于改进突变级数法的农产品物流产业评估模型研究

摘要

Obj ective and accurate analysis and assessment of the development of agricultural products logistics offer the governments a scientific basis to adj ust industrial development and make a reasona-ble industrial plan.This paper constructs an assessment model for agricultural products logistics in-dustry with catastrophe progression method and the maximum deviation method,and processes the relevant data of Shandong and Guangdong provinces from 2010 to 2014 with the model.The results in-dicate that the advantages of agricultural products logistics industry in Guangdong province mainly lie in the economic basis and its degree of informationization,but the infrastructure construction is the most important disadvantage that restricts its development.The research also shows that the large in-dustrial scale is an important support to the development of agricultural logistics industry in Shan-dong.It is argued that the model proposed in this paper has significant merits.It overcomes the limita-tion of subj ective empowerment yet maintains the scientific rationality;it is convenient in calculation and it has important practical value.%对农产品物流产业发展水平进行客观、准确的分析与评估，可为政府部门优化与调整产业发展、合理制定产业规划提供科学依据。运用突变级数法与离差最大化法构建农产品物流产业评估模型，并选取广东和山东两省20102014年相关数据对构建的评估模型进行实例分析。结果表明：广东省农产品物流产业发展的优势主要体现在信息化水平与经济基础两方面，基础设施建设则是当前制约其产业发展的关键因素；而庞大的产业规模是现阶段支撑山东省农产品物流产业发展的重要力量。改进的突变级数评估模型既克服了主观赋权的局限，又不失科学性和合理性，计算简单，具有重要实用价值。