基于 DEA －BCC 模型的我国水产品贸易安全评估

摘要

Building the DEA -BCC model of aquatic products’ trade security on the basis of input -output ,evaluate the trade security of aquatic products from 2004 .According to the results of evalua‐tion ,the scores of combined efficiency on the trade security of aquatic products from 2004 to 2013 are 1 .000 ,0 .876 ,0 .953 ,1 .000 ,1 .000 ,0 .790 ,0 .299 ,0 .348 ,0 .305 and 0 .210 ,w hich means it w as more safe in 2004 ,2007 and 2008 .On the contrary ,it was in a dangerous situation after 2008 .These are caused by several reasons :a high degree of dependence upon foreign trade ,poor relationship with the regional organizations and trade partners and weak power in determining the international price of a‐quatic products ,etc .Based on the above analysis ,some countermeasures are proposed ,such as devel‐oping the diversified international market ,strengthening the technological research and upgrading the industrial structure ,reinforcing the cooperation between related sectors to obtain standardized produc‐tion on aquatic products .%本文从投入产出角度出发建立我国水产品贸易安全分析DEA －BCC模型，对2004年以来水产品贸易安全度进行了评价，得出2004－2013年我国水产品贸易安全综合效率值分别为1．000、0．876、0．953、1.000、1．000、0．790、0．299、0．348、0．305、0．210，表明2004年和2007、2008年中国水产品贸易相对安全，2008年之后中国水产品贸易安全总体上处于危险状态。这与我国水产品贸易较高的外贸依存度、外贸集中度以及与区域组织关系和贸易伙伴关系一般、较弱的国际水产品定价影响力等因素有关，并据此提出发展多元化的水产品国际市场，加大技术开发，推动水产业结构升级，加强部门合作，实现水产品的绿色化和标准化等政策性建议。