达茂旗干旱牧区59年气候变化规律分析

摘要

气候变化是影响我国北方干旱牧区草原生态的重要因子,利用达茂旗周边12个气象站点空间插值1954~2012年的气温、降水量等气象资料,采用线性倾向估计法、Mann-Kendll 突变诊断和 mor-let 复变小波分析等方法,对达茂旗气候特征进行了分析。结果表明：近59年来,达茂旗年均气温呈上升趋势,上升速率为0.41℃/(10 a),降水变化趋势不明显。通过 M-K 突变检验,进一步验证了年平均气温及降水的变化趋势,同时,确定了研究区年平均气温在20世纪80年代的增暖是一突变现象,具体是从1986年开始。通过 morlet 复变小波分析,研究区年平均气温演变过程中存在着3~7 a,8~16 a,17~32 a 的3类尺度的周期变化规律；在年降水演变过程中存在3~6 a,7~9 a,12~22 a 的3类尺度的周期变化规律。%Climate change is an important factor affecting the pasture ecosystem of arid area in the North of China.Based on the meteorological data during 1 954 to 2012 collected from 12 meteorological stations in Damao, the climate characteristics were analyzed with the methods of Linear Trend Estimation,Mann-kendll Mutations and Morlet Complex Wavelet analysis.The result showed that the annual temperature in Damao increased by 0.41℃ every 10 years and the precipitation did not show obvious changing trend in last 59 years.The changing trends of annual temperature and precipitation were verified by M-K method,meanwhile,it was proved that the rising of annual temperature since 1 986 during 1 980s was a mutation phenomenon.There were 3 levels of peri-odic changing patterns both in the evolution of annual temperature (3~7 a,8~1 6 a,17~32 a)and annual pre-cipitation (3~6 a,7~9 a,12~22 a)in the research area by the wavelet analysis.Climate change is an important factor affecting the pasture ecosystem of arid area in the North of China.Based on the meteorological data during 1 954 to 2012 collected from 12 meteorological stations in Damao,the climate characteristics were analyzed with the methods of Linear Trend Estimation,Mann-kendll Mutations and Morlet Complex Wavelet analysis.The re-sult showed that the annual temperature in Damao increased by 0.41 ℃ every 10 years and the precipitation did not show obvious changing trend in last 59 years.The changing trends of annual temperature and precipitation were verified by M-K method,meanwhile,it was proved that the rising of annual temperature since 1 986 during 1 980s was a mutation phenomenon.There were 3 levels of periodic changing patterns both in the evolution of annual temperature (3~7 a,8~1 6 a,17 ~32 a)and annual precipitation (3 ~6 a,7 ~9 a,12 ~22 a)in the re-search area by the wavelet analysis.