阜阳市天然气能源系统模型研究

摘要

为科学合理地对阜阳市天然气能源进行研究和预测,提出了天然气能源的logistic模型.以统计检验估计法对模型中的天然气经济增长系数和天然气对阜阳市的需求最大缺口量进行了预测估计,借由《安徽统计年鉴》数据定量分析了未来10 a阜阳市天然气的发展趋势,为阜阳市的天然气能源系统提供了合理的供需参考及城市能源系统的安全战略参考.%This paper presented a logistic model of natural gas energy for scientific and reasonable analysis and prediction of natural gas energy in Fuyang City. By the statistical test estimation method, this paper predicted and estimated the economic growth coefficient of natural gas in the model and the maximum gap of natural gas demand in Fuyang City and quantitatively analyzed the development trend of natural gas in Fuyang City in the next 10 years based on the data of Anhui Statistical Yearbook, which provides reasonable reference for supply and demand and a safety strategy reference for urban energy system of the natural gas energy system in Fuyang City.