北京市交通运输业能源消费碳排放影响因素分析

摘要

本文参考IPCC的方法,测算了2005—2015年北京市交通运输业化石能源消费及其CO2排放总量,并对其总体变化趋势进行探讨;运用对数平均迪氏分解模型(LMDI)将北京市交通运输业碳排放因素分解为人口效应、经济增长、产业规模、能源强度和能源结构5个因素,并对其贡献值进行分析.结果表明,交通运输业需要消耗大量的化石能源,研究期内其能源消费碳排放增速处于波动下降态势,但总量仍在增加;北京市交通运输业碳排放的增量因素由强到弱依次为经济增长、人口效应、能源结构,减量因素由强到弱依次为产业规模和能源强度.本文基于分析结果,为北京市交通运输业碳减排政策提出针对性的建议.%Based on the accounting method of IPCC , this paper calculates the fossil energy consumption and CO2emissions of the transportation industry in Beijing during 2005~2015, and discusses the overall trend of them. Then we use the logarithmic mean Divisia decomposition model (LMDI) to decompose the carbon emission factors of transportation in Beijing into five factors: population effect, economic growth, industrial scale, energy intensity and energy structure, and analyze their contribution values. Findings show that: the transportation industry also consumes a large amount of fossil energy, and the annual growth rates of energy consumption and carbon emissions fluctuated in a downward trend during the study period, but the total amount is still increasing; The incremental factors of carbon emission in transportation industry in Beijing from strong to weak are economic growth, population effect, energy structure, and the reduction factors from strong to weak are industry scale and energy intensity. Finally, according to the results, some suggestions are put forward for the carbon emission reduction of the transportation industry in Beijing.