情景分析法在能源规划研究中的应用

摘要

情景分析法(scenario analysis)是通过假设、预测、模拟等手段生成未来情景,并分析情景对目标产生影响的方法.情景分析法出现以来,在能源规划领域就有着广泛的应用.在分析情景分析法与能源经济关系的基础上,以基于情景分析的可再生能源规划方法为案例,分析了基于定性与定量情景分析的能源规划研究方法.认为,基于对未来关键不确定性因素分析的情景分析法,通过描绘未来多种可能的情景,能为制定高质量能源发展规划及政策提供支持.%Scenario analysis method is widely used in the field of energy economy since its emergence. Based on the analysis of the relationship between scenario analysis and energy economy, and by taking the renewable energy planning with scenario analysis for example, the qualitative and quantitative scenario analysis method in energy economic field is studied. The result indicates that scenario analysis could provide support for developing high-quality energy planning and energy policy based on the analysis of the key future uncertainties and the depicting of many possible future scenarios.