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METHOD AND SYSTEM FOR INTERMEDIATE TO LONG-TERM FORECASTING OF ELECTRIC PRICES AND ENERGY DEMAND FOR INTEGRATED SUPPLY-SIDE ENERGY PLANNING
METHOD AND SYSTEM FOR INTERMEDIATE TO LONG-TERM FORECASTING OF ELECTRIC PRICES AND ENERGY DEMAND FOR INTEGRATED SUPPLY-SIDE ENERGY PLANNING
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机译:集成供方能源规划中电力价格和能源需求的中期预测方法和系统
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摘要
A method of price forecasting in an electrical energy supply network and/or load (energy demand) forecasting of a given consumer of electrical energy, in the context of an electrical energy supply network that is adapted to supply electrical energy to a number consumers connected to the network. The method includes developing a multi-regime, regime switching stochastic model for determining day ahead/spot market energy prices using at least one historical profile and subjective opinion from at least one expert; and the multiple regimes correspond to a number of combinations of physical factors. A regime is identifiable by at least three factors. The method thus facilitates identifying the optimal mix of energy hedge and exposure to day ahead/spot market prices for deriving economic benefits in overall energy expenditure.
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