情景分析法在贵州省旅游发展规划环评中的应用研究

摘要

The application of scenario analysis method in planning impact assessment was introduced as well as its theory and characteristics.Four scenarios were set up for Guizhou province tourism development planning.They are planning exploitation,business as usual,high speed growth,and low speed growth.On the basis of comparing the results of different scenarios,scenario 1 seemed to be the best option,which has implied that planning demonstra-ted more obvious positive impacts on society and economy than the negative influences on environment and intangi-ble culture heritage.The environmental influence here referred to surface water quality and solid waste disposal.%介绍了情景分析法的理论体系、特性表述、在规划环评中的应用。贵州省旅游发展规划模拟了4种情景，分别是规划开发、正常发展、高速增长、低速增长。综合比较4种选择方案，情景1为最佳选择。评价结果显示：规划在社会经济方面的正面影响大于对环境和无形文化遗产的负面影响，这里的环境影响主要指地表水水质和固体废物的处置。