[提要]利用中国社会综合调查数据，本文定量评估了高校扩招对大学教育回报率的异质性干预效应。基于“反事实”和“局部干预效应”的思想，将大学毕业生区分为扩招前不能升学扩招后却可考上大学者和即使没有发生扩招也能升学者。研究发现：高校扩招使前者收入增长了约40%，且并未明显削弱后者收入优势。这一结论在男女样本间存在明显差异，有必要通过推进高中教育质量均等化等措施保障弱势群体的高等教育权益，使扩招“红利”惠及社会每个阶层。%Using data from CGSS,this paper quantitatively examines the heterogeneous treatment effect of higher education expansion (HEE)on return to higher education between treated groups.First, under conceptual framework of the counter-factual and local average treatment effect,we identify different treatment groups whose educational achievement was affected by HEE:never-takers,compliers and al-ways-takers.The results show that:for compilers,its revenue grew by about 40%;for always-takers,the advantages of revenue was not significantly weakened;enrollment policy effects of heterogeneity university education significantly different rates of return between men and women in the sample.It is necessary to equalize the quality of education, expand student loans benefit from measures to protect vulnerable groups,such as surface rights of higher education.
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