基于云定性仿真的兰彻斯特作战模型

摘要

过去多年来兰彻斯特方程已成为计算机作战仿真领域的标准方法，然而该类方法不能充分反映建模中相关变量内在的不确定性。鉴于此，提出了一种基于云定性仿真方法的定性兰彻斯特作战模型，该方法引入正态云的数字特征和云测度指标表示定性路标值，并将云测度指标在约束集合中传播以提高仿真结果的准确性，不仅可以更准确地表征作战模型中相关变量的不确定性，而且扩充了作战应用的适用范围，尤其是在无法或无需对模型相关变量精确量化的情况下，仿真中涉及到如何表征这些不确定性的定性变量时，该方法具有一定优势。最后以经典历史战役为例验证了该方法的正确性与可行性。%During the past many years, Lanchester’s differential equations have been the norm for computer simulations of combat. However, these methods cannot fully reflect the inherent uncertainty of related variables in modeling. In view of this limitation, we propose a Lanchester’s combat models based on cloud qualitative simulation. This method introduces numeric characteristics and cloud measurement index of the normal cloud to represent the qualitative landmarks, and propagate the cloud measurement index within constraint sets to improve the accuracy of simulation results. Consequently, this method allows for a more accurately representation and interpretation of the uncertainty within related variables in modeling, and expands the scope of warfare application. Especially when the relevant variables of the model cannot or need not be quantified precisely involving with the case of representation of qualitative variables with uncertainty, this method has certain advantages. Finally, the examples of classic historical battles demonstrate that this method is a correct and feasible method.