In the study of population growth forecast, the accuracy of common prediction model is somewhat low and the results lack of guidance. However, the hyperbolic model and the computational complexity of differential equation model are both complex in calculating and also difficult to solve. It is not convenient for use in the area with low technology. To solve these problems, based on the gray prediction model, a differential equation model of population growth has been built. The model simulates different ages, different types of demographic changes. It can accurately predict the structural changes, changes in sex ratio, urbanization, and so on. The model was applied to predict China's population. The result is consistent of the population development prediction in the study of national population development strategy. The calculation of residuals is less than 0.2 and the model predicts good results.%在人口增长预测的研究中,关于人口总数、性别、年龄结构等预测,一般预测模型准确性较低,预测结果缺乏指导意义;而双曲模型和微分方程模型计算复杂,很难求解,不便于科技水平较低地区使用.为解决上述问题,基于灰色预测模型,提出差分方程构建人口增长预测模型.模型能仿真出不同年龄、不同类型人口变化情况,能准确预测结构变化、性别比例变化、城镇化情况等.应用模型对中国人口进行仿真预测,得到结果与国家人口发展战略研究人口发展预测相符合,为人口增长提供了较好的预测模型.
展开▼
