手足口病传染率季节性及其与人口流动的关系

摘要

以安徽省手足口病为例,估算手足口病传染率的季节性,分析人口流动与手足口病传染率季节性之间的关系.采用时间序列模型及简单整体模型估算了手足口病随时间变化的传染率,分析了手足口病传染率的季节性.通过线性回归模型分析了人口流动(公路旅客运输量)与手足口病的传染率季节性之间的关系.结果表明两种模型估算的手足口病传染率均有显著的年季节性,传染率峰值发生在每年2月春运期间;安徽省人口流动手足口病传染率季节性有显著影响.这些研究结果有助于分析手足口病的动态传播特性,能够更好地解释手足口病的报告发病数周期性的成因.%In this paper,we estimated the transmission rate seasonality of hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Anhui province,and analyzed the relationship between the population flux and the transmission rate seasonality of HFMD.The transmission rate of HFMD was estimated by using TSIR model and the simple mass model;the transmission rate seasonality of HFMD was analyzed.The relationship between the population flux (transport volume of highway passenger) and the transmission rate seasonality of HFMD was analyzed by using linear regression model.Results of our two models show that the transmission rate of HFMD has annual seasonality,the peek of transmission rate occurred in February every year during the Spring Festival.The annual transmission rate seasonality was because of the population flux in Anhui province.These results can help to analyze dynamic transmission characteristics of HFMD and can better explain the cyclic pattern of HFMD report case.