产业升级与城市增长的双向驱动——基于中国数据的理论和实证研究

摘要

There has always been alternating evolution and mutual promotion between upgrading of industrial structure and urbanization process.Through analyzing the interaction relationship between industrial upgrading and urban growth,the analysis framework and index system are established.The Granger Causality Test is used to show that the expansion of urban scale is an important reason for the industrial upgrading and development,while the improvement of the urban quality has no significant effect on it.Industrial upgrading has a greater role in promoting the income of urban residents,but it has no significant influence on other variables of urbanization.Further variance?decomposition.analysis also shows the same or similar results.Accordingly the corresponding conclusions and policy are obtained.%产业结构优化升级与城市化进程之间存在着交替演进和相互推动的关系,通过解析产业升级与城市增长的互动作用关系,构建分析框架和指标体系.采用格兰杰(Granger)因果关系检验法,结果表明,城市规模扩大是产业发展升级的重要原因,城市质量的提升对其无显著影响,产业发展升级对城镇居民收入提高有较大促进作用,但是对城市化其他变量因素无显著影响,进一步的方差分解分析也表明了相同或相似的结果,据此得出相应的结论与对策.