基于ARIMA模型的医院门诊量预测

摘要

目的 分析医院门诊量的变化规律,预测其未来1年-2年的门诊量.方法 应用SPSS13.0软件对1999年-2009年门诊量进行ARIMA模型的建模拟合,用所得到的模型预测2010年、2011年月门诊量.结果 ARIMA(0,1,1)(1,1,0)模型很好的拟合了以往的门诊量序列,参数具有统计学意义.结论 ARIMA模型能很好的拟合门诊量变化趋势,为医院管理提供依据.%Objective to analyze changing law of hospital outpatient number for forecasting its number in the future 1 to 2 years. Methods to apply SPSS13.0 software for outpatient number modeling and matching of ARIMA mode from 1999 to 2009; to forecast outpatient number in 2010 and 2011 by using the mode. Result ARIM A (0,1,1 )(1,1,0) mode is perfectly match the past outpatient number sequence, which parameter has statistical meaning. Conclusion ARIMA mode match perfectly outpatient number changing trend, providing basis for hospital management.