目的 根据历史数据预测未来北京市卫生总费用发展情况,根据预测结果指导该地区区域卫生规划.方法 以2000—2014年卫生总费用的年平均增长速度为标准,通过来源法和机构法对2015—2020年卫生总费用的相关指标进行预测.结果 至2020年,北京市卫生总费用达4197.13亿元,居民个人现金卫生支出占比将低于15%,但农村居民就医压力仍高于城市,总费用机构流向城市医院占比降至77.74%,而流向县医院和社区费用占比升至12.60% 和14.65%.结论 未来几年北京市卫生总费用增长迅速,筹资结构趋于良好,但在进行区域卫生规划时应注意卫生总费用在城乡间、各机构间的分配.%Objective To predict the development of health expenditure in Beijing in the future according to the historical data,and guide the regional health planning based on the forecast results.Methods Based on the average annual growth rate of the total annual health expenditure in 2000-2014 years,the source law and the relevant indica-tors of the institutional law for the total health expenditure in 2015-2020 years were predicted.Results By 2020 in Beijing City,total health expenditure was predicted to amount to 419 billion 713 million yuan,personal health ex-penditure proportion of residents would be less than 15%.But the rural residents'pressure would still be higher than the city,with the total cost of institutions to the city hospital accounting for 77.74%,while the flow of county hospi-tals and community expenses accounting for a rise to 12.60% and 14.65%.Conclusion The total expenditure of Beijing will increase rapidly in the next few years,and the financing structure will tend to be good.But in the regional health planning attention should be paid to the total health expenses in the distribution between urban and rural areas and between different institutions.
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