南极磷虾资源丰度变化与海冰和表温的关系

摘要

根据2003-2010年南极磷虾在南极半岛周边CCAMLR辖区48.2区产量数据,并结合该区域海冰和海表温度(Sea surface temperature,SST)数据,分析了磷虾产量的变化与海冰和SST的相关性.结果表明,48.2区的渔汛期为3-7月,主要作业时间为2-8月,产量约占该渔区年产量的99.3％.回归分析表明,磷虾的单位捕捞努力量渔获量(Catch per unit of fishing effort,CPUE)变动与海冰面积和SST面积变化关系明显.磷虾的CPUE与海冰总面积年间变化呈现显著的负相关(R2 =0.64),与海冰密集度大于90％的海冰面积负相关系数最大(R2=0.71)；年内变化关系则为一元二次多项式回归模型,CPUE随海冰面积的递增先增大后减小,与海冰密集度为60％-70％的海冰面积回归模型最好(群R2=0.88).磷虾的CPUE与SST为-2-3℃时的总面积年间变化没有相关性(R2 =0.21),但与SST为1-2℃时的面积呈现显著的负相关(R2=0.83)；年内变化关系也为一元二次多项式回归模型,CPUE随SST面积的递增先增大后减小,与SST为0-1℃时的面积回归模型最好(R2 =0.94).%In this paper we examine the relationship between the changing Antarctic krill catch,sea-ice concentrations,and sea surface temperature ( SST).Data on the Antarctic krill catch in CCAMLR Area 48.2 surrounding the Antarctic Peninsula from 2003 to 2010,were combined with sea-ice and SST data.The results showed that krill fishing in Area 48.2 took place from February to August each year but the catch was concentrated from March to July,with production during this period accounting for about 99.3% of the annual catch.Regression analysis showed that the catch per unit effort ( CPUE) of Antarctic krill was clearly related to the area of sea ice and SST.CPUE was negatively correlated with the total area of sea ice among years (R = 0.64 ) ,and the correlation was strongest (R = 0.71) when sea-ice concentrations were greater than 90% .A second polynomial regression model looking at the relationship among months showed that CPUE initially increased,then decreased as the area of sea ice increased.The relationship was strongest (R =0.88) when the concentration of sea ice was between 60% and 70%.There was no negative correlation among years between CPUE and SST where temperature values were between -2℃ and 3 ℃ (R2 =0.21),but there was a significant negative correlation between CPUE and SST where the temperature values were between 1 ℃ and 2 ℃ (R2 =0.83).Among months,the CPUE initially increased then decreased with the increasing SST,and the relationship was strongest (R2 =0.94) when SST was between 0 ℃ and 1 ℃.