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中国城市土地经济密度的分布动态演进

         

摘要

The purpose of this paper is to explore the general distributional characteristics and the evolution law of urban land economic density, and then to provide guidance and reference for the efficient integration and coordinated development between urban land utilization system and urban social economic system. Methods applied in this paper include Kernel Density Estimation and Markov chain. The results show that:1)the general level of China’s urban land economic density has been improved, but there are significant spatial imbalanced characteristics, which basically presents the geographical pattern of the eastern region>the central region>the western region. 2)The regional disparity of urban land economic density in the sample period is increasing on the national level and the eastern, central and western regional level, and urban land economic density shows various degrees of polarization in the development process. 3)The liquidity of land economic density in cities of different levels is poor, the relative position of each province in the general urban land economic density distribution is relatively stable, and the long-term equilibrium of urban land economic density will be at a medium or high level. The paper concludes that we should take different strategies of urban land use and economic regulation, so that we can achieve the coordinative development between urban land use and economic development in the eastern, central and western areas of China.%研究目的:探究城市土地经济密度的整体分布特征及其演进规律,为实现城市土地利用系统与城市社会经济系统的高效融合及协调发展提供指导与参考。研究方法:核密度估计,马尔科夫链。研究结果:(1)中国城市土地经济密度的整体水平不断提高,但存在着显著的空间非均衡特征,基本呈现出东部地区>中部地区>西部地区的地理格局;(2)在全国层面和东、中、西部三大区域层面,城市土地经济密度的地区差距在样本考察期内都不断加剧,且各地区城市土地经济密度在发展过程中都出现过不同程度的极化现象;(3)中国不同水平城市土地经济密度之间的流动性较差,各省份在总体城市土地经济密度分布中的相对位置比较稳定,且城市土地经济密度的长期均衡状态将处于中高水平和高水平。研究结论:采取差异化的城市土地利用管控策略和经济调控策略,实现东部、中部和西部地区城市土地利用与经济发展的协同共进。

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