既有桥梁生命周期成本决策模型研究

摘要

为了合理分配有限的养护资金、确定最佳的维护对策和时机,基于结构可靠性,以既有桥梁的生命周期成本最小化为目标,利用决策树模型和马尔柯夫过程对既有桥梁的维修策略进行分析,结合桥梁的生命周期其他费用,建立桥梁的生命周期成本决策模型,找到桥梁在生命周期各阶段的最佳维护策略.通过计算案例对该模型的使用方法进行了说明.该模型可较全面地考虑到桥梁在生命周期各阶段的状态概率和成本因素,使决策结果更具有实际意义.%For the sake of rational allotment of the limited maintenance fund and determination of the best maintenance strategies and time, the maintenance strategies for existing bridge are analyzed by means of the decision tres model and Markov Process on the basis of structural reliability and by taking the minimum life cycle cost of the bridge as the goal. With reference to other costs related to the life cycle cost of the bridge, a decision model of the life cycle cost for the bridge is created, the best maintenance strategies at various stages of the life cycles of the bridge are found out and the utilization of the model is illustrated as well by the calculation examples. With the model, the status probability and cost factors of various stages of the life cycles can be considered comprehensively and the decision made according to the model will be of still more practical significance.