导致我国森林资源受损的主要生物灾害为森林病害、虫害与鼠害等。基于2000-2010年全国森林病虫鼠害的发生面积、程度等数据，计算获得森林蓄积、直接经济与生态服务功能价值的灾害损失量，采用多元线性回归法等分析我国森林生物灾害发生、灾害损失的特点与趋势。结果表明：我国森林生物灾害发生范围（区域）2010年较2000年增加0.61%，发生面积从2000年的8.52×106公顷次增加到2010年的1.16×107公顷次，增长36.7%，上升趋势显著，对其贡献大小依次为：虫害（贡献率54.2%）>鼠害（贡献率33.3%）>病害（贡献率12.5%）。森林病害、虫害、鼠害发生面积均呈显著上升趋势，尤其是鼠害发生面积2010年较2000年增长105.18%。但是，从发生程度上看，森林生物灾害新增面积以轻度发生为主，其对病虫鼠害、病害、虫害、鼠害面积呈增加趋势的贡献率分别为75%、67.4%、72.8%、54.1%。伴随森林生物灾害面积增加，森林蓄积、生态服务价值损失呈显著上升趋势，如2010年蓄积损失2.48×107 m3、生态服务价值损失895.37亿元，分别较2000年增长5.2%与28.5%，而森林鼠害加重则是导致生态服务价值损失的重要因子。以上结果说明，近10多年来，我国森林生物灾害范围、发生面积显著扩增，尽管扩增面积多以轻度发生为主，但所导致的森林资源损失与发展趋势不容乐观。%In China, forests are often damaged by some bio-disasters, mainly including the pest, diseases, wild rats, etc. In this study, we collected the data of forest bio-disasters from 2000 to 2010, computed the loss of directly economic and ecological values, and analyzed the trend with multiple linear regression method. Results showed that the region of forest bio-disasters increased by 0.61%in 2010 compared with that in 2000, and the area of bio-disasters increased by 36.7%, from 8 518 580 hm2 in 2000 to 11 642 430 hm2 in 2010. So there was an obvious up-trend in area from 2000 to 2010. The contribution for this trend was pest area (with 54.2%)>wild rat area (with 33.3%)>disease area (with 12.5%). In effect, all the areas of pest, diseases and wild rats showed an up-trend, especially the damaged area by wild rats increased by 105.18%in 2010, compared with that in 2000. However, most forests were damaged lightly by the bio-disasters, and the increasing trend of forest damage areas was mainly attributed to the increase in lightly-damaged areas by the pest, diseases and wild rats. Then the loss of forest stock volumes, directly economic and ecological values also showed an up-trend. Loss of forest stock volumes was 24 785 000 m3 and loss of ecological values was 89 537 million Yuan in 2010, which increased by 5.2%and 28.5%, respectively, when compared with that in 2000. The ecological loss was mostly attributed to the damage by wild rats. So results showed that both the range and area of forest bio-disasters were enlarged in these ten years, and the new loss of forest resources should be slowed down by taking some control measures.
展开▼
