PURPOSE: A method for creating a forest fire occurrence probability model and a method for creating a forest fire occurrence probability map are provided to be used for the establishment of a forest fire prevention policy. CONSTITUTION: A point layer for location where a forest fire occurs and a point layer for location where a forest fire does not occur is obtained(S101). The point layer for location where a forest fire occurs and point layer for location where a forest fire does not occur are integrated(S102). The value of explanation variable is extracted(S103). A forest fire probability model including forest fire probability and winning change ratio is created(S104). A forest fire probability map is made(S105).
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