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Factor contribution to fire occurrence size and burn probability in a subtropical coniferous forest in East China

机译:中国东部亚热带针叶林火灾发生大小和燃烧概率的因素贡献

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摘要

The contribution of factors including fuel type, fire-weather conditions, topography and human activity to fire regime attributes (e.g. fire occurrence, size distribution and severity) has been intensively discussed. The relative importance of those factors in explaining the burn probability (BP), which is critical in terms of fire risk management, has been insufficiently addressed. Focusing on a subtropical coniferous forest with strong human disturbance in East China, our main objective was to evaluate and compare the relative importance of fuel composition, topography, and human activity for fire occurrence, size and BP. Local BP distribution was derived with stochastic fire simulation approach using detailed historical fire data (1990–2010) and forest-resource survey results, based on which our factor contribution analysis was carried out. Our results indicated that fuel composition had the greatest relative importance in explaining fire occurrence and size, but human activity explained most of the variance in BP. This implies that the influence of human activity is amplified through the process of overlapping repeated ignition and spreading events. This result emphasizes the status of strong human disturbance in local fire processes. It further confirms the need for a holistic perspective on factor contribution to fire likelihood, rather than focusing on individual fire regime attributes, for the purpose of fire risk management.
机译:人们已经广泛讨论了包括燃料类型,火灾天气条件,地形和人类活动等因素对火灾状况属性(例如火灾发生,大小分布和严重性)的影响。这些因素在解释燃烧可能性(BP)方面的相对重要性,这在火灾风险管理方面至关重要。以华东地区人为干扰较大的亚热带针叶林为重点,我们的主要目标是评估和比较燃料成分,地形和人类活动对火灾,大小和BP的相对重要性。利用详细的历史火灾数据(1990-2010年)和森林资源调查结果,采用随机火灾模拟方法得出了当地的BP分布,并在此基础上进行了因子贡献分析。我们的结果表明,燃料成分在解释火灾的发生和大小方面具有最大的相对重要性,但人类活动可以解释BP的大部分差异。这意味着人类活动的影响通过重复的重复点火和扩散事件的过程而被放大。该结果强调了局部火灾过程中强烈的人为干扰状态。它进一步确认,出于火灾风险管理的目的,需要从整体角度考虑因素对火灾可能性的影响,而不是着眼于个别火灾状况属性。

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  • 年(卷),期 -1(12),2
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  • 页码 e0172110
  • 总页数 18
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