电力系统运行调度中的高阶不确定性及其对策评述

摘要

The increase of source/network/load uncertainties in power system operations makes the prerequisites of deterministic dispatching methods more and more difficult to satisfy in current power systems.Prediction,analysis and decision-making methods under uncertainty have been developed rapidly.However,as the basis of dispatching in uncertain environment,the statistical rules of the source/network/load are still uncertain for themselves,which directly affect the effectiveness of the decision-making methods and cannot be ignored simply.Recently,researchers begin to focus on the higher-order uncertainty problems and put forward information acquisition methods and optimal dispatching methods in view of the uncertain probability distributions.In this context,the higher-order uncertainty problems existing in renewable generation, load response capacity and power generation/transmission equipment are analyzed concentrating on the clue of the higher-order uncertainty,the existing analysis and decision-making methods under higher-order uncertainty are introduced.Finally,the key problems and future research directions in this field are summarized and expected.%源、网、荷不确定性的增强使得确定性调度方法的合理性前提在当今电力系统越来越难以满足,不确定性的预测、分析与决策方法得到了快速发展.然而,作为不确定运行条件下电力系统调度决策的基础,源、网、荷不确定性的统计规律自身却也存在着难以避免的不确定性,这种高阶不确定性直接影响着应对不确定性调度决策方法的有效性,不可简单加以忽略.近年来,已有研究开始关注这种调度中存在的高阶不确定性问题,提出了围绕着不确定概率分布的信息获取方法与优化调度方法.在此背景下,将围绕着高阶不确定性这一线索,对目前受到关注的新能源发电、负荷响应能力以及发输电设备运行可靠性中存在的高阶不确定性问题进行分析,评述已有的针对高阶不确定性问题的分析与决策方法,进而,对这一研究领域中亟待解决的问题及未来的发展方向进行总结与展望.